Five years ago, in 2014, American league
teams averaged 144 home runs and 677 runs scored. This year they averaged 232 home runs and 791
runs scored. That’s a 61% increase in
home runs per team, but just a 17% increase in runs scored. Average team hits are almost identical—1410 to
1402— and the league batting average was .253 in 2015 and .253 again this year. Average doubles plus triples were 301 in 2014
and 314 in 2014. Thus, the increase in
home runs corresponds quite closely to a decline of 93 in the average number of
singles. Average slugging percentage has
increased accordingly, from .390 to .439. The OBP is up a little from .316 to .323,
because walks have gone up to 528 per team from 473. So, 10% of hits were homers then, 16% of hits
are homers now. Strikeouts, however, are
up from 1216 per team to 1428. Combining
212 new strikeouts with 88 new home runs, the average team puts 300 less balls
in play every season, or two less per game.
This makes sense: while the obvious alternative to a single is a ground ball
out, the obvious alternative to a home run is a strikeout.
This very large increase in home
runs, however, can make traditional statistics even more misleading than
usual. Homers are so plentiful that
hitting them has become a less valuable skill relative to the league. 31 American Leaguers hit 30 or more home runs
in 2019. Remarkably and significantly, Jorge Soler, who led the league with 48,
earned just 3.3 WAA, a very valuable performance but short of the 4 WAA
superstar level. Minnesota’s Max Kepler
hit 36 homers and earned 1.2 WAA; Gary Sanchez of the Yankees hit 34 (in 106
games!) and earned only 0.6. Jose Abreu
of the White House hit 33 and was an utterly average performer, and Rougned
Ordor of Texas hit 30 with -1.8 WAA. 8
of these 31 players earned less than 1 full WAA.
And thus, despite the escalating
home run totals, the shortage of superstar performances in the two leagues
continued. In 2018 the AL had 9 such
performances of 4 WAA or more and the NL 7. This year the corresponding figures
were 10 for the AL—four of them with the same team!—and only 4 in the NL. We now turn to the best teams in each league.
Although their lineup was four
games better overall and their pitching four games worse, the Houston Astros in
2019 finished with essentially the same run differential as they had in
2018. This time their luck improved, and
they won a full 107 games, one less than their projected 108. Once again their strongest offensive players
were Alex Bregman (6.4 WAA) and George Springer (4.7), and Bregman edged out Mike
Trout as the MVP of the AL, and indeed, of all baseball. The lineup included three other stars: first
baseman Yuri Gurriel (3.7 WAA), DH Yordan Alvarez (a remarkable 3 WAA in just
369 plate appearances), and Jose Altuve (2.4)
Outfielder Michael Brantley, catcher Robinson Chirinos, and oft-injured
shortstop Carlos Correa were also above average. On the mound, Justin Verlander (4.9 WAA) and
Gerrit Cole (4.3) were two of the top four pitchers in the American League, and
accounted for the entire positive value of the pitching staff. Thanks to Bregman, Springer, Verlander and
Cole, the Astros became only the eighth team since 1901 to have four genuine
superstars in the same season, the last being the 2001 Seattle Mariners.
In a remarkable, injury-wracked
season, the New York Yankee lineup, with only four players with more than 120
games played, still earned +15 WAA and enabled the team to finish with 103
wins. D.J. LeMahieu just missed
superstar status with 3.9 WAA, and second baseman Gleyber Torres (2), right
fielder Aaron Judge (3.1 in just 102 games), third baseman Gio Urshela (2.4),
and outfielder Mike Tauchman (2.1 WAA in just 82 games) were stars, while
several other players performed at an above average level. The team’s fielding was average, but the
pitching staff contributed another +5 WAA, evenly divided between the starters and
relievers. While LeMahieu cannot be
expected to replicate his 2019 contribution, the team’s many injuries suggest
that they should be able to perform at least as well in 2020. The Yankees lost a very close ALCS to the
Astros in six games.
Helped by three games worth of
luck, the Minnesota Twins, in an amazing turnaround from a sub-.500 2018,
became the third team in the league to top 100 victories with 101. Despite poor
fielding (-4 WAA), their lineup posted +9 wins in classic small market fashion. Their best player, 38-year old DH Nelson
Cruz, earned only 3.6 WAA, but their top 16 players did not include a single
man worse than -0.5 WAA, while six of them earned more than 1. Catcher Mitch Garver and outfielder Byron
Buxton, although each limited to less than 95 games, starred with 2.1 WAA
apiece, while poor fielding kept shortstop Jorge Polanco, second baseman
Jonathan Schoop and outfielder Eddie Rosario from stardom. The pitchers—whose contribution was somewhat
obscured by their fielders’ problems—earned a combined +9 WAA as well, led by
starters Jose Barrios (2.1) and Jake
Odorizzi (2.5). Luck seems to have
played a significant role in the overall pitching record, suggesting that the
Twins will give up more runs next year. On
the other hand, the team, which set a new season record with 307 home runs, had
8 players with 22 home runs or more—only one of which appeared in more than 137
games.
A great deal went wrong for the
defending champion Boston Red Sox, who declined from 108 wins in 2018 to just
84, both times with -4 wins worth of Pythagorean luck. 8 -1. Their lineup was almost exactly as valuable as
in 2018, with +8 WAA instead of +9.
While Mookie Betts and J. D. Martinez could not be expected to match
their amazing 2017 seasons, they still posted 5.3 and 3.4 WAA,
respectively. In other bright spots, third
baseman Rafael Devers performed adequately in the field and hit very well,
finishing with 2.9 WAA at age 22, and catcher Christian Vazquez more than
rebounded from a terrible 2018, with 2.8 WAA.
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, however—a star in 2018—had a dreadful year in
the field, giving up -26 runs, and finished with just 1.7 WAA. Several second basemen once again cost the
team badly, the first basemen were average, and outfielder Andrew Benintendi
fell all the way to average after his excellent 2018 season. Center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. was below
average both at bat and in the field and cost the team -1.3 WAA again. The real disaster, however, was on the mound,
where a staff that earned +13 WAA in 2018 fell to average. Starter Eduardo Rodriguez posted an excellent
3 WAA, but 2018 stars Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello were average
or (in Porcello’s case) worse. As a group the relievers were below
average. The team now wants to cut its
payroll, but both Price and Sale have many years to run on long-term contracts
totaling $45 million a year. Another
2018 division winner, the Cleveland Indians, suffered a bizarre season. Their
omens were good, since they had won 91 games in 2018 despite -8 full games of
bad Pythagorean luck, and despite some injuries, their pitching staff led the
league again at +11 WAA. Their lineup,
however, fell from +3 WAA to average thanks to wretched hitting, and their 93
wins left them short of a wild card.
Only luck allowed Tampa Bay to beat
Cleveland for the wild card with 96 wins.
The Rays’ lineup lacked a superstar but included outfielder Austin
Meadows (3.5 WAA), first baseman Ji-Man Choi (2.8), and second baseman Brandon
Lowe (2.3). The rest of the lineup was
weaker—outfielder Tommy Pham was only average because of poor fielding--and
overall it was barely average. Their
pitching staff, however, earned a full +10 WAA, led by Charlie Morton (3.5
WAA), Yonny Chirinos (1.4), and relievers Emkilio Pagan, Tyler Glasnow, and
Oliver Drake (4.2 among them, in 187 innings pitched.) Three games worth of luck gave them an edge
over the Indians. Oakland had much
better balance and won 96 games, one below their projection, with promise for
the future. Great fielding produced tremendous
performances from shortstop Marcus Semien (6.3 WAA), third baseman Matt Chapman
(4.8), and first baseman Matt Olson (3.6), and star turns from outfielders Mark
Canha (3.2) and Ramon Laureano (2.5)
Alas, the lineup also included DH Khris Davis (-1.2) second baseman
Jurickson Profar (-2.3), and catcher Josh Phegley (-1.1) and overall it earned
only 11 WAA. A remarkably consistent
set of pitchers added +6 WAA more, even though only Liam Hendricks topped 2
WAA, with 2.1 in just 85 innings. While
their top players cannot be expected to do quite as well next year, Billy Beane
has often managed to find average ones to strengthen his weak spots. With Houston to contend with, however, they
are unlikely to do better than another wild card birth and a 50-50 chance of
advancing.
The American League had 10
superstars in 2019, including four Astros; the National League had only five,
including two Mets, top rookie Pete Alonso (5.3 WAA) and top pitcher Jakob
DeGrom (4.9). Despite that one-two
punch, New York won only 86 games, far short of the playoffs. Once again the Los Angeles Dodgers far
outshone the rest of the league, winning 106 games despite -2 games worth of
bad Pythagorean luck. Their lineup
improved its fielding from -4 WAA in 2018 to +2, and its overall performance
from +10 to a whopping +16. Cody
Bellinger, the league MVP, led the way with 6.1 WAA, followed by second baseman
Max Muncy (3.6), third baseman Justin Turner (2.9), and John Pederson, Corey
Seager, Alex Verdugo, Will Smith, and David Freeze (about 1 WAA each.) Their
pitching meanwhile held steady at +10 WAA, led by starters Hyun-Jin Ryu (a
near-superstar at 3.9 WAA), Clayton Kershaw (2.7), and Walker Buehler
(1.5). But the Dodgers fell to a much
weaker Nationals team in the NLCS.
The Atlanta Braves improved their
2018 record from 90-72 to 97-65 for one reason: their Pythagorean luck earned
them an extra 5 wins, having cost them 2 wins the previous year. Their lineup (+6 WAA) was a little better,
even though first baseman Freddie Freeman, now 29, fell off from 4.2 WAA to
2.2. 21-year old outfielder Ronald Acuña
posted a fine 3.2 WAA, and new acquisition Josh Donaldson added 2.3. Among the pitchers Mike Soroka, also 21, just
missed superstar status with 3.9 WAA in 175 innings, and starters Julio
Teheran, Max Fried and Dallas Keuchel contributed 4 WAA among them, although
the rest of the staff pulled the
moundsmen down to just +4 WAA overall.
The Washington Nationals began the campaign with a wise decision not to
sign the erratic Bryce Harper, who earned just 1.8 WAA in his first $11.5
million season with the Phillies. Third
baseman Anthony Rendon turned in a 4 WAA superstar season and 20-year old
sophomore Juan Soto posted a very promising 3.4, allowing the lineup to improve
slightly from +4 WAA to +5. The pitchers
(+8) remained the strength of the team, with starters Stephen Strasburg, Max
Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez posting a combined 11.9 WAA, the
best rotation in the majors. In this
case as in a number of others, the rest of the staff—a combined -4 WAA—pulled the
team down. In the NL wild card game the
Nationals rallied to beat the Brewers, one of the luckiest teams in recent
memory, who squeaked into the playoffs with just 89 wins—thanks only to a full
+8 games of Pythagorean luck. Then their
pitching allowed them to sneak beat the superior Dodgers in the NLDS, and they
swept the Cardinals quite easily in the NLCS.
St. Louis won 92 games thanks
mostly to their fielding, which earned them a full +5 WAA. Second baseman Kolten Wong and shortstop Paul
DeJong saved +37 and +15 runs, respectively, allowing them to earn 1.4 and 4.6
WAA. One must ask whether those figures
owed something to the very effective use of infield shifts, and to a good deal
of luck, as well as to the skill of those two men. The Cardinals found their way to first place
in the NL Central despite very disappointing performances from veteran Matt Carpenter
(-2.4 WAA) and free agent acquisition Paul Goldschmidt (0.6). Yadier Molina (1.6 in 113 games) had another
good year behind the plate in limited duty.
The pitching staff evidently was not quite as good as it looked thanks
to the fielding, and earned only +2 WAA overall. Only starter Jack Flaherty (3.6 WAA) and
reliever Giovanny Gallegos (1.4) earned more than 1.
After four consecutive seasons of
92 wins or more, including a 103-win world championship in 2016, the Cubs fell
to 84-78 and missed the playoffs. Among
their long-time leaders, Anthony Rizzo lead the lineup with just 2.7 WAA, while
Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber fell to average—in Heyward’s and
Bryant’s cases, because of wretched seasons in the field. The lineup earned just +3 WAA and the
well-balanced pitching staff +5—even though Kyle Hendricks led the staff with
just 1.9 WAA, trailed by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels with 1.5 each.
On the all-time list of Millennial
position players, only Mike Trout added to his total of superstar seasons,
posting his eighth consecutive one, with 6.5 WAA in just 134 games. He has never been below 4 WAA in a full season,
but sadly, has appeared in postseason play just once. Ted
Williams also posted at least 4 WAA (and usually much more) in his first eight
seasons, and Trout is two shy of the all-time record of 10 in his first 10
years, set by Albert Pujols. The other
great Millennials from the 1980s seem to be in the decline phase of their
careers. Robinson Cano has not added to
his four superstar seasons since 2016 (though that total would normally get a
second basemen comfortably into Cooperstown), Miguel Cabrera, with seven such
seasons, has been average for the last three years, and Joey Votto, who also
has seven, has been only a star, not a superstar, for the last two years. Josh Donaldson hasn’t added to his total of
four in the last three years. The very
unlucky Paul Goldschmidt—by this measure—posted his second 3.9 WAA season in
2018, to go with four other seasons comfortably over 4, but we have seen that
he slipped all the way to average in his first year as a Cardinal, even though
he is only 31. Shin-Shu Choo had the
last of his four great seasons in 2014. David
Wright, whose career is over, and Andrew McCutchen, both seem to have burned
out very early, well short of Cooperstown.
Among younger Millennials born in the 1990s, Mookie Betts topped 5 WAA
for the third time in four years at age 26, and Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, and
Christian Yelich all posted their second consecutive superstar seasons. For the second year in a row, Aaron Judge,
sadly, was only a star because injuries cost him a good chunk of the season.
Among the pitchers, Justin
Verlander posted his fifth superstar season (4.7 WAA) at the age of 36, while
Max Scherzer (3.7), while missing his sixth, posted a seventh consecutive
season with at least 3.7 WAA. Clayton Kershaw (2.7) posted at the star level
for the third consecutive year, but he, like Verlander and Scherzer, already
looks like a cinch for Cooperstown.
Jakob DeGrom posted his second consecutive superstar season. If the Mets can take care of their weak
spots, DeGrom and Alonso should be able to lead them into postseason play in
2020.
